As dramatic as I may sound but markets and me have like an “Unsaid Chemistry” between us and whether I speak about it often or not openly , Rupee particularly knows am always watching it 🙂

Most participants dont really have a firm view today as what I gather after speaking to many but my read says the below-

Usdinr has been stuck in a tight 75.50-76.50 band for a while now and the reason of this depreciative tilt is a combination of Oil, Geopolitical Risks, Inflation, Policy Divergence, Outflows etc.. C’mon gimme your obvious reaction- Yeah I know that so what’s new ??

SonaliSays – As I always say, mkts move in cycles and currently every news around dollar, inflation, geopolitcals , rates etc are only means to build Dollar longs ( reversal of dollar shorts last year) atleast till the 1st 50 Bps hike. Once the event is out of the way, mkts start to ditch the same positioning and the next 50 bps will perhaps not have the same built up hence I feel with stretched dollar long positioning on the technicals, it is poised for a corrective move. I dont rule out a 96.50 on Dollar index in next 6 months or even earlier.

I’d like to wait to sell Eurusd and buy USDINR. For now, given the levels of premia I’m reasonably okay eating the carry.

Oh yes By the way, have you downloaded WiredUp as yet ? Oh My God you really dont know what you are missing, do you 🙂 Hurry Hurry before competetion latches onto your prospect ! Even if its not funny, the attempt was honest !